We have recently heard some interesting possibilities on Kosovo’s final status. An emerging, if still minority, opinion within the EU suggests further negotiations and perhaps some joint approach toward EU membership for Serbia and Kosovo. Now there is also the intriguing suggestion that this could be in the form of a confederation of cantons. Suggesting that it might take 50 years to get there, the founder of peace and conflict studies, Johan Galtung, told a Serbian journal that the future of Kosovo lies in arranging the territory according to the Swiss model. Most cantons would be Albanian, but at least three would be Serb. “In the Serb cantons, the administration would work completely towards the Serbian idiom. If the Serb cantons were to stay within the 'Republic of Kosovo' and start opening themselves towards Serbia, it can be expected that the Albanian cantons would open themselves towards Albania.” Given the apparent intractability of the final status issue – it seems difficult to imagine the Albanians giving up independence and Serbia simply agreeing to it - his 50 year timeline is understandable. Yet Galtung raises an approach – shared sovereignty – that may at some point be a useful element for discussion.
Meanwhile, EU/ICO chief Pieter Faith tried again to explain exactly who the northern strategy belongs to in comments reportedly made this past week. Expressing “determination” to move on the north, he said the strategy “is not a document on which the EU has agreed, but I think it is fair to say that I have explained the contents ... and I found out there is a positive interest in the development of further steps in the EU to move forward in the north, parallel to the approach which we have drafted with the government.” And for good measure he repeated, according to the UN press daily update for February 18, that the Serb “parallel” structures must be dissolved. (He added that they could be replaced by “privileged communications” between Belgrade and the locals Serbs to reassure them that they can get support – through using re-circulated customs fees collected by Pristina – to “retain their traditional way of living.” This interesting suggestion has probably been made “DOA” by his previous dance around the so-called strategy.)
Potentially more ominous, the Commander of NATO’s southern wing visited Pristina for independence day and reportedly said that NATO considers the “parallel” structures a threat to security and that his forces would respond to any violence from them. He also reportedly repeated the outrageous claim that the Serb institutions are illegal because they “not in line with (UNSC) Resolution 1244.” This is simply untrue. Under 1244, the only legal institutions in Kosovo are those under the UN. The UN works closely with the northern municipalities and has senior staff sitting with them under the UN flag. This is not true south of the Ibar where the Pristina institutions reject UNMIK entirely. Someone might tell the Admiral that under 1244, the Serb institutions are the only legal ones in Kosovo.
NATO is not the only one playing loose with legalities. The Kosovo power company KEK is again ranting against “illegal” Serbian companies providing electricity in the north and has told northern customers – the same it cut off last year – not to pay these illegal bills. KEK called for “appropriate measures to ensure support for the rule of law.” Someone looking for a casus belli?
To be fair, this is probably just more heavy breathing by the Pristina group, who have gotten themselves into a strategic dead-end after trying to bully Belgrade and the northern Serbs into surrendering. The EU foreign policy chief urged Belgrade during her stop there this week to improve relations with Kosovo while waiting for EU membership. As if agreeing to dismembering your country was just another item on the checklist. The Quint – led by the EU – remains with no place to go in the north and no plan b, other than perhaps the threat or use of force as noted by the NATO commander. In this stalemate, the UN must play a strong role in preventing provocations and keeping the peace. This alone will preserve the option for a negotiated settlement.
And here a note of caution may be in order. During the week in which the UN was reportedly considering opening up further construction in sensitive mixed areas of north Mitrovica (UN press updates), there were explosions and attacks directed at both Albanians and Serbs in the Bosniak Mahalla area. With all the attention on the various arguments, these minor attacks – no one hurt or probably meant to be hurt – remind that the north is an area of peacekeeping. Hopefully, UNMIK will not be pressured into allowing construction in places that could provoke real violence.
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