Kosovo: An Asterisk for the EU? Really?

Every friend or neighbor of the EU should be wishing it well right now. The success of the Union and its common currency is in the common interest. As an American, I have long supported the EU also as a necessary, and friendly, counter-weight to the the US in international affairs. But the Europeans just seem unable to do foreign policy, not even in their own backyard. Brussels (and the Quint) have been using prospective EU membership to bully, threaten and cajole the Tadić government into meeting two different conditions for smooth sailing into the Union: finding the ICTY fugitives Mladić and Hadžić and accepting the loss of Kosovo. They seem to think that bringing Serbia into Europe is a gift to the Serbs that they must earn rather than a way to contribute to stability and progress in Central Europe.

President Tadić is desperate for progress on Serbia's bid to join the EU. He needs to show his electorate that his Europe option brings benefits for Serbia's ailing economy. Belgrade has recently increased the reward offered for the two fugitives to a total of over $15 million and appealed to Interpol for help. Tadić has done as much to accommodate the EU on Kosovo as politically possible. But he faces two fundamental problems that may doom his effort to curry enough favor with the EU to unlock the doors for Serbian entrance: the dual nature of the demands (for both the fugitives and Kosovo) and the fact that the Quint will probably always demand more on Kosovo than he can give.

The latest sign that the EU will overplay its hand is the signals from Brussels that a few “wrong” answers to the “questionnaire” on candidacy to be delivered this week to Belgrade could set back the membership process. “Wrong” answers would be those Belgrade might give that would “affirm sovereignty and territorial integrity in Kosovo.” The un-named sources for these hints describe the questionnaire as “status neutral” on Kosovo. Therefore, “Serbian answers should be status neutral and respect UN Resolution 1244 as well .... Serbia will not be forced to recognize Kosovo's independence in the questionnaire but Belgrade should accept in the answers the reality that Kosovo is not under Serbian sovereignty or control.” Thus, they advise, care would have to be exercised in answering questions about things like state size, border length and other statistics concerning the number of municipalities or amount of agricultural land. An EU source reportedly therefore advised that “the elegant solution for the EU and Serbia could be using an asterisk for Kosovo …. Belgrade could present all dates for Serbia without Kosovo. Inserting the asterisk would mean that Serbia treats Kosovo in respect of UN Resolution 1244.”

An asterisk? Really? But this is shear nonsense. If Belgrade met the condition to treat Kosovo in a “status neutral” manner and asterisk its claims, it would be recognizing Kosovo. UNSCR 1244 does not demand that Serbia treat its claim to Kosovo in a “status neutral” manner. Indeed, UNSCR 1244 can be read to recognize Serbia's continuing claim to Kosovo. UNSCR 1244 – and the Security Council's failure to alter or abolish it – creates the need for those international institutions in Kosovo under the UN umbrella – including the EU – to act in a status neutral manner. It has not prevented Pristina from declaring independence nor does it demand Serbia give up its claim.

And by the way, if Tadić was a cynic, he might well think that giving up Mladić right now, while Brussels still holds the Kosovo sword over his head, would get him nothing. A cynic might therefore believe it best to keep the Mladić card to play another day. Anyone home in Brussels?