Thursday, March 10, 2011

Kosovo: The First Round


Belgrade and Pristina have now held their first round of EU-sponsored talks. Predictably, the two day session was simply an opportunity for the two sides to size each other up and table their opening talking points. Much will be made of the start of these talks though what progress will emerge remains to be seen. But talking is better than the other alternatives. Presumably, all parties will now refrain from provocative actions that could derail the process. That includes the internationals.

The Kosovo Albanian side – supported by an outside chorus of friends including the US and the EU (in the guise of Pieter Feith) – asserted that the meeting was between two states and that status or partition would not be discussed nor Kosovo's laws changed. The Serbian side kept to the high ground. They reportedly avoided raising status while suggesting readiness to tackle practical issues and saying nice things about the EU mediator – “positive and status neutral” – though still accusing Pristina of trying to “impose terminological and narrative differences.” The EU facilitator – British diplomat Robert Cooper – reportedly characterized the atmosphere of the talks as “good” and suggested that the most important accomplishment of the meetings was that the dialogue has now begun. He reiterated that the goals of the talks were to strengthen regional cooperation, put both sides on the road to the EU and improve the lives of the people. Issues discussed reportedly included Kosovo Serb access to Serbian mobile phone services, returning to Kosovo birth certificates and land-ownership records held by Serbia, use of Serbian airspace by Kosovo-bound flights and whether UN officials would continue to speak for Kosovo in CEFTA.

In a statement afterwards, the EU reportedly called on the parties to set aside sovereignty issues and focus on a dialogue to “remove obstacles that have a daily impact on people's lives, to improve cooperation, and to achieve progress on the path to Europe.” Another session reportedly will be held this month in Brussels with a schedule for the next year of two meeting per month. (A senior US official from Washington actively participated in these meetings but the UN was not invited.)

After the meeting, the chief Kosovo Albanian delegate told the press that the Serb side seems stuck in the past because it has not accepted that Kosovo is an independent state recognized by 75 countries. She also reportedly repeated the Kosovo Albanian threat that if Kosovo's borders were changed or the north given special status, “it will cause a domino effect” in the region including with Albanians in the Presevo valley and in Macedonia. For his part, the chief Serbian delegate told the BBC that there were “great proposals from both sides ... but there are some topics we are getting closer than some others.”

For there to be any chance of success in these talks, two things must happen. First, the two sides must be convinced that solutions to their mutual and differing problems with the current stalemate will come only from what they themselves can agree. In other words, neither Belgrade or Pristina should believe that they can sit back and refuse to talk seriously about a proposal simply because their international backers will protect them. This will be much harder for the Albanians since it would mean that they could not, for example, refuse to consider special status for the north or allowing Serb companies to offer services in Kosovo. (Belgrade will have little support from anyone for their negotiating positions so this will not be an issue.) Thus the EU and US will have to make it clear to Pristina that any proposal short of renouncing independence must be allowed on the table.

Second, both sides will have to approach the talks in the most practical manner. Belgrade will have to consider seriously treating some issues as non-political even though they might be taken otherwise. Mutual use of airspace, mutual recognition of license plates and at least some documents would be examples. This would not foreclose bargaining hard for something in return – like access for Serbian providers of telecoms and electricity – and remaining opposed to others such as the courts and customs.

It would also be useful for the mediators to be prepared to suggest practical, status-neutral approaches where that may help break logjams. Time for the Quint now to leave bullying aside and seize the opportunity for making progress that may lessen tensions and prepare the way for an eventual modus vivendi if not a final agreement.

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