Kosovo: The Americans' Generalissimo

Seems the Americans have reassured Generalissimo Buhler that there is no way he can go too far in supporting Pristina and abusing the northern Serbs. His soldiers – mostly Americans and Germans plus French – are increasingly acting to seal off all the boundary crossing roads between Serbia and Kosovo. They are routinely denying entry to any commercial goods. NATO is apparently leaking documents suggesting that some northern Serb political leaders are criminals. Buhler himself continues to talk about criminals controlling the north and forcing the people there to resist rule from Pristina. The man is either oblivious to reality or cynically ignoring it to carry out the “muscular” strategy the US has apparently imposed on KFOR, the EU and the silent UNMIK.

Buhler is now suggesting that NATO's illegal commercial blockade of northern Serbia will continue until “negotiations” show results. NATO will continue to choke off the north until Belgrade surrenders to Pristina's demands on customs. He also intends to negotiate – with whatever Serbs he can find – “cadastral and administrative boundaries in the north.” I am not even sure what that means as there already are such boundaries in the north, the same used under UNMIK. Maybe a German General experiences a slight frisson at being able to occupy northern Kosovo again?

Buhler and NATO's behavior in the north is so far out of the bounds of their UN mandate that they must be under the direct command of the US embassy in Pristina and the EUR Bureau of the State Department. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the European Bureau (EUR) told the press in Pristina that Kosovo has the right to rule the north.  “Kosovo is an independent and sovereign state which has the right to extend its rule over the entire territory. This is about the rule of law, and that is the key, fundamental concept not only here, but in the whole Europe.” (One wonders if the US would support this “fundamental right” for Abkhazia and South Ossetia?) No wonder that Belgrade is claiming that the US and Pristina government synchronized actions in beginning this new effort to change facts on the ground in the north through use of force. The US diplomats are probably congratulating themselves for showing those weak-wristed Europeans how a real power gets things done.

The US clearly expects the “smart” use of force – not directly against the local population but to isolate and harass them – plus the EU pressure on Belgrade to finally accomplish conquest of the north. It is by now clear that the EU will not give Serbia a date for candidacy – and if the US has its way, not candidacy itself – until Tadić gives up the north to Pristina. (The Quint can wait a bit longer for recognition.) If Belgrade does not agree to terms on customs that Pristina can accept at the September 2 session of the talks, the pressure will continue. Perhaps the US has other surprises up its sleeves such as arrests or allowing other provocations by the Albanians or KFOR itself. (The Americans are so smart as to be working with Pacolli now to buy a few African recognitions to suggest a “trend.”)

But the Americans should be careful about patting themselves on the back too soon. Have they and the NATO command thought through all the scenarios? Maybe not or KFOR would be acting more cautiously and according to its UN peacekeeping mandate. Let me help by proposing some “what-ifs.”

What does NATO do if it arrests all the political leaders and the protests and roadblocks simply continue? What does it do if roadblocks are manned by women and children and men on hunger strike? What does NATO do if five or ten thousand Serbians march into the north to “liberate” it? What does the Quint and NATO do if Belgrade allows the boundary to become a border but the northerners refuse to accept? How long does NATO tie up its forces in the north enforcing Pristina's commercial blockade if Belgrade does not surrender? What does KFOR do if the Kosovo Albanians in the south cannot resist attacking the Serbs there? How does NATO react if its reckless, pro-Pristina behavior in the north goes so far as to prompt real violence? 

From my experience serving the US government, and as an observant citizen, we Americans are not really very good about having good answers to these sorts of questions before jumping into the deep end.  We always think we know better and can prevail by making it up as we go and playing it tough.  But where are the Europeans and why do they support the Generalissimo?