Friday, November 18, 2011

Kosovo: Is the Quint Serious About Peace at All?

According to the press, the Quint is apparently still using helicopters to fly Kosovo customs officials to the two northern Gates.  It was KFOR doing the air travel but I understand it may now be helicopters rented by EULEX?  In any case, seems that EULEX is pleased with itself because it continues to plant these customs officials at the boundary crossings even though they have nothing to do as the northern Kosovo Serbs continue to block them.  It appears too that KFOR has stopped trying to close off all alternative roads as there are too many of them and too few KFOR.  (Perhaps not all national contingents are willing to go on these wild goose chases?  Just the Americans and Germans?)

Not at all clear what the Quint thinks it gains by this daily empty gesture.  Perhaps it is meant to appease Pristina?  Or perhaps to keep the boundary issue open until Belgrade agrees - under pressure from the EU - to some customs formula acceptable to the Kosovo Albanians?  Whatever the case, it sure ain't status neutral.  Talk about Kosovo as "one customs area" cannot hide the fact that UN peacekeepers - i.e., KFOR and EULEX - have no legal mandate to decide which side owns that area.

And EU pressure there is.  The German ambassador in Kosovo reportedly has said that his country gives Serbia until December 9 - the date for an EU decision on candidacy - to provide "firm evidence" that it will give up on the "parallel" institutions in the north.  This is necessary to prove Serbia's "constructive relations" with Kosovo.  The German ambassador reportedly added that while it cannot be expected that the "parallel" institutions would be abolished byDecember 9, "if Serbia wants the EU Council of Ministers to approve its candidacy status on that day, it has to find a way to show that it has given up on these structures."

It is beginning to look like maybe, just maybe, Germany is simply using the Kosovo issue - raising conditions it knows President Tadic cannot accept - because it does not want further problems inside the EU.  Germany has its hands full with all those Latin and Mediterranean countries who can't be trusted to live as responsible burghers.  Merkel does not want to have to explain to her taxpayers how she could have let in one more "basket case" that Germany will end up having to pay for.  So Berlin sets ever receding conditions for Serbia and now demands that Tadic give up the north.

For the first time, a Serbian government official is surfacing the possibility that the misguided Quint policy could lead the north to declare its independence.  (The ICJ ruled in 2009 that international law is silent on such things.)  There are other ways to settle the northern issue but the US and EU are not helping getting there.  A return to status neutral peacekeeping would give everyone more options than simply deepening the conflict.  But deepening the conflict may be what at least some of the Quint want.





1 comments:

  1. Great post. I enjoy reading your blog. Keep up the good job!

    ReplyDelete

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