Kosovo: The Danger of War

It seems clear by now that the Quint countries - and chiefly the US - are determined to pry northern Kosovo from Serbia without regard to any UN mandate or what the people of northern Kosovo may prefer.  The pressure from the EU on the Tadic government may be breaking it - the deputy prime minister has already resigned - but the Quint seems to have decided to go for broke.  Brussels remains determined that Serbia must accept Kosovo customs in the north, get the locals to bring down the barricades and end support for the "parallel" institutions that have been part of the Serbian administration since before 1999.

The Quint may also be preparing a war scenario in the north by seeking a military solution to the local Kosovo Serb resistance to rule from Pristina.  The locals themselves believe they see signs of a coming NATO military offensive in the north.  KFOR has been demanding freedom of movement (FOM) for EULEX and "refusing" to accept the Serb offer to let NATO through the barricades.  But it has used FOM to re-supply its forward areas and has been reinforcing its own presence along the main roads in the north.

KFOR may also be preparing the way for some action to "arrest" those it claims are behind the clashes in the north that injured NATO soldiers.  (Interestingly, it focuses on the events of November 28 and the death of a Kosovo Albanian policeman shot in a Serbian village in July rather than the September 27 event in which NATO personnel were wounded in an apparent friendly fire incident NATO was quick to cover up.)  NATO and EULEX could use this as justification for new actions against the northerners.  Indeed, the Serbian Interior Minister downplayed the NATO focus on possible criminals in the north and charged that "a part of the international community" is making plans "to militarily conquer northern Kosovo."

KFOR's own commander has made it clear that NATO has completely abandoned its UNSCR 1244 mandate for Kosovo peacekeeping.  In a remarkable video of KFOR FOM activity in northern Kosovo released by NATO, German Major General Drews explained that his forces are "insisting" on FOM because "as long as there is no FOM in northern Kosovo, EULEX and the institutions in Kosovo are prevented from realizing the rule of law in this country; presently there is no rule of law, there are no legal institutions, no working police and other institutions."  Looked at in light of 1244, this statement is wrong in two big ways:

• Under UNSCR 1244, the only legal institutions in Kosovo are UNMIK ones.  The instituions in the north work with and under UNMIK and therefore are legal, including the local Kosovo police (KPS).  The Pristina institutions proclaim their legality but that remains a disputed matter and has not been judged legal by anyone.  Not the ICJ and not the UNSC.
• There is not a single word in NATO's 1244 mandate for Kosovo that gives it the responsibility to impose anyone's rule of law in the north except, possibly UNMIK's.

Drews' comments suggest that NATO and the EU no longer base their presence in Kosovo upon the UN mandate but rather the "invitation" from Pristina to help it implement the Ahtisaari Plan as now written.  This has two implications: that the northern Kosovo Serbs now have no legal responsibility to cooperate with KFOR and EULEX and that KFOR believes any action to subdue the north is within its Pristina-derived mandate.  This is a very dangerous mix.

NATO's abandonment of its UN peacekeeping mandate for a Pristina mandate to conquer the north explains why the northern Kosovo Serbs may look around at KFOR's actions to date and fear a coming military offensive.  But they are unlikely to simply surrender.  And even if NATO placed troops on every street corner, it could not force them to participate in Kosovo institutions.  Their officials could meet anywhere and they could ignore anything coming from the south.  To impose a court in north Mitrovica, NATO would have to escort the personnel there everyday, perhaps by helicopter as they do now to the crossing points.  Does the Quint really expect any government in Belgrade to simply agree to end support to a besieged north?  A military "solution" to the north is shear illusion and folly.  Another dangerous mix.