The Kosovo town of Leposavic decided this week to join the other three northern municipalities in holding a "referendum" in mid-February on whether to accept or not inclusion in Pristina institutions. Both Belgrade and Pristina have announced their opposition to the vote. Serbian government officials have suggested the referendum is not in the "interests of the state" because it might provoke reaction from the international community and from the Kosovo Albanians. Pristina calls the vote "illegal" and denies that the northerners have the "right" to declare themselves outside the "sovereignty" of the Kosovo "state."
It is unclear if Belgrade and Pristina's rejection of the February vote will remain verbal or escalate into actions to pressure the northern Kosovo Serbs to drop their plans or to prevent the vote outright. But KFOR appears to have chosen this moment - the eve of the Orthodox Christmas - to once again seek to close the boundary crossings to large vehicles while forcing traffic into the Gates manned by EULEX and Kosovo Albanian police and customs.
But why all the fuss? Northerners reportedly will not be voting on declaring independence - from either Serbia or Kosovo - nor on declaring a "republic" or partition. Northern leaders say they will not be using official funds to hold the vote. They believe that showing, through an open vote, that the majority of northerners oppose rule from Pristina will strengthen their political position and that of Serbia. In any case, the vote won't decide anything.
The "referendum" will essentially be a poll of northern Kosovo Serb sentiment on accepting Kosovo independence. It is not in violation of UNSCR 1244 as that mandates only that Kosovo residents accept UN administration of Kosovo, i.e., UNMIK. Indeed, the four northern municipalities are the only institutions in Kosovo to work with UNMIK.
It's true that the likely results of the poll will not surprise anyone. It has been clear since 2008 - and seemingly proven by the effort on the barricades since July 2011 - that the northern Kosovo Serbs reject rule from Pristina. But in the face of continued efforts from the Quint and Kosovo Albanians to paint the resistance to inclusion in Kosovo institutions as a result of control by "criminals" and "radicals," it's understandable that the northern communities want to go on record publicly and clearly.
The "referendum" poses no threat to anything or anyone. But the isolation of the northern Kosovo Serbs by Belgrade and the internationals - KFOR and EULEX - is dangerous. On one side, President Tadic seems so determined to not offend the EU that he reportedly will not be stopping in the north during his Christmas visit to Kosovo. Belgrade has made it clear the referendum does not have its support while labeling it as well a political ploy by the opposition. On the other side, KFOR's actions on the Gates and EULEX's continuing refusal to act in a status neutral fashion in the north adds to the pressures on the north.
If anyone thought that more pressure would convince the northern Kosovo Serbs to back down, that at least would explain their actions. But who can still expect that? Continued pressure on a beleaguered community may instead become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Making a big fuss over this little poll might lead to the next vote being much more serious.
It is unclear if Belgrade and Pristina's rejection of the February vote will remain verbal or escalate into actions to pressure the northern Kosovo Serbs to drop their plans or to prevent the vote outright. But KFOR appears to have chosen this moment - the eve of the Orthodox Christmas - to once again seek to close the boundary crossings to large vehicles while forcing traffic into the Gates manned by EULEX and Kosovo Albanian police and customs.
But why all the fuss? Northerners reportedly will not be voting on declaring independence - from either Serbia or Kosovo - nor on declaring a "republic" or partition. Northern leaders say they will not be using official funds to hold the vote. They believe that showing, through an open vote, that the majority of northerners oppose rule from Pristina will strengthen their political position and that of Serbia. In any case, the vote won't decide anything.
The "referendum" will essentially be a poll of northern Kosovo Serb sentiment on accepting Kosovo independence. It is not in violation of UNSCR 1244 as that mandates only that Kosovo residents accept UN administration of Kosovo, i.e., UNMIK. Indeed, the four northern municipalities are the only institutions in Kosovo to work with UNMIK.
It's true that the likely results of the poll will not surprise anyone. It has been clear since 2008 - and seemingly proven by the effort on the barricades since July 2011 - that the northern Kosovo Serbs reject rule from Pristina. But in the face of continued efforts from the Quint and Kosovo Albanians to paint the resistance to inclusion in Kosovo institutions as a result of control by "criminals" and "radicals," it's understandable that the northern communities want to go on record publicly and clearly.
The "referendum" poses no threat to anything or anyone. But the isolation of the northern Kosovo Serbs by Belgrade and the internationals - KFOR and EULEX - is dangerous. On one side, President Tadic seems so determined to not offend the EU that he reportedly will not be stopping in the north during his Christmas visit to Kosovo. Belgrade has made it clear the referendum does not have its support while labeling it as well a political ploy by the opposition. On the other side, KFOR's actions on the Gates and EULEX's continuing refusal to act in a status neutral fashion in the north adds to the pressures on the north.
If anyone thought that more pressure would convince the northern Kosovo Serbs to back down, that at least would explain their actions. But who can still expect that? Continued pressure on a beleaguered community may instead become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Making a big fuss over this little poll might lead to the next vote being much more serious.
I would say the reason the EU is opposed to this vote is clear. With it it will be that much harder for the it to label communities on the roadblocks criminals or in the thrall of criminals.
ReplyDeleteWhat is more puzzling is why would Belgrade oppose this. If, as is likely, after the vote the EU finds itself less able to claim Kosovo Serbs are doing the bidding of criminals, then to this same extent the pressure on Belgrade to 'do something about the criminals' must lessen.
The vote works to the advantage of the Serbian government since it knocks down an instrument from the hands of the EU with which to pressure it, jet official Belgrade opposes it anyway. I think this shows just to what extent Serbian leadership thinks of the interests of the EU as their own.
Gerard, my best wishes for 2012!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Tadic is pushing himself into trouble. Refusing the Northern Serbs their democratic rights is not exactly the way to endear himself with democratically minded voters in Serbia. And by not defending those democratic rights with the West he is creating the illusion there that they don't exist. That will mean more pressure. He would have come in a better position if he had defended the referendum with something like "it is not my idea. but it is their democratic right to be heard so I can't see any problem with it". That would have put the Western countries and Pristina in the position where they have to explain why it is a problem. And because he would declare it publicly they would have to do so too.