Kosovo: Short Interview with Blic on Local Elections

For general interest, I repeat here the entire original interview I gave Blic on Serbia holding local elections in Kosovo: 

Q. If Serbia decides to, respecting its Constitution, organize local elections in Kosovo, how would it reflect to its international position, especially on Serbia`s relations with EU (ed Germany) and possibilities to open political talks about status of northern Kosovo?

A decision by Serbia to hold local elections in Kosovo might well irk some of those countries supporting Kosovo independence.  The hardliners - such as Germany and the US - might see in this a failure to meet their conditions for EU candidacy including dismantling "parallel" institutions.  Others might, however, understand that President Tadic would have a hard time disregarding the constitution and would pay a political cost for appearing to abandon Serbia's claim to Kosovo.  Seems most likely that there will be local Serbian elections in places in Kosovo where there are concentrations of Kosovo Serbs. There is no reason, however, that any dispute over elections should justify delay in organizing talks on the north.  Indeed, talks on a special status for the north are necessary in order to find a way to bring practical benefits to the people of Kosovo despite the continued differences over status.
 
Q. EU is expecting that Belgrade dismantle parallel institutions and according to Resolution 1244 Belgrade can`t organize local elections without cooperation with international community. How both facts can be synchronized with Belgrade desire to continue with gaining status and eventually the date of starting negotiations and preserving the north of Kosovo?

As I suggested, there seems little room for the Serbian government to not hold local elections in Kosovo.  Where there are Kosovo Serb communities, the elections can probably be held without much involvement of the internationals.  Where an international role could be very important would be in finding a formula for holding the elections in a way that preserves status neutrality as well, such as holding them also under the UN flag or through OSCE or perhaps by UNMIK extending the mandates of the current assemblies.  As the International Crisis Group noted in its recent report, it is vital that the Kosovo Serbs in the north have elected local leaders - accepted as legitimate by everyone - who can take part in discussions about the future of the north within Kosovo.  The northerners have proven, by their determined, peaceful resistance on the barricades, that they must be part of any successful effort to resolve the status of the north.

Q. If Belgrade decides not to organize local elections on northern Kosovo would it weaken its position for negotiation on status of northern Kosovo?

In truth, a decision to not hold elections there would probably weaken Belgrade's position more than holding them would.  It may be that there is nothing Serbia can do short of surrendering Kosovo to Pristina that would move Germany to agree to granting EU candidacy.  Giving up on local elections now would declare, in effect, that the local governments there are no longer legal even under Serbian law.  This would not change anything on the ground in a way the EU would probably like.  It would more likely start a train of events that would produce immediate political effects and could even incite the other side to again try use of force.  It would be destabilizing and might well lead to violence and/or ethnic flight (and not just in north Kosovo).  Keeping a path open for negotiations requires that a formula be found to avoid a dispute over local elections in the north, not by canceling them.