I've suggested here that the Quint and everyone else may be settling in for riding out the next months with no essential progress on north Kosovo, leaving it a frozen conflict. That does not mean, however, that everyone is relaxing. The EU - led by Germany - is pressing President Tadic for whatever they can squeeze out of him before taking up the issue of EU candidacy early next month. The Tadic government is meanwhile doing all it can to please the EU, hinting at not holding Serbian elections in Kosovo, sending its own police to dismantle barricades, discussing a deal to allow Kosovo to represent itself in regional groupings with only a footnote and entertaining EULEX on further "rule of law issues."
It may be that Berlin specifically is leading the charge on Belgrade - now sending its foreign minister - because splits within the EU may make it hard to deny Serbia candidacy altogether. A deal now to include regional representation, clearing barricades and implementing integrated border management could be enough to justify Germany giving way. Serbia might then get candidacy but, perhaps, no date. The EU would maintain leverage with Belgrade while giving Tadic something to show for the upcoming elections.
Belgrade is trying to hold up its end for this kind of deal. Last night, Serbian police went to the barricade blocking the road to the "official" crossing at Jarinje and dismantled it. This on the eve of a visit by the head of EULEX.
In Belgrade, General de Marnhac complained that EULEX still does not have full freedom of movement in north Kosovo. He explained that EULEX must resume "its regular and critical rule of law operations in the north without any further delay" adding that "only the criminal structures benefit from the current situation." In an interview, de Marnhac said EULEX is at the official crossings "ready to operate the gates" and suggested that in the current bad weather "the best way to move is to go through the 'normal' roads." According to de Marnhac, the objective is "to return to a normal functioning of the gates, first of all for the sake of the people." KFOR recently cleared its side of the Janrinje gate so now with Belgrade's help, EULEX "readiness," and the Kosovo Albanian personnel being flown to the crossing every day, they can all claim a Potemkin border between Kosovo and Serbia.
The EU's use of the candidacy issue to force Belgrade to give way on these Kosovo issues is using something "big" to gain some quite "small" objectives. Either Serbia in the EU makes geo-political sense or it does not. If the EU membership agrees it does, chasing down President Tadic on barricades and footnotes is simply absurd. It's a way to seek some quick, "flashy" progress that changes little. And it poisons the atmosphere for real substantial progress in resolving the core remaining Kosovo status issues by raising nationalist feelings on all sides.
Belgrade's gyrations in trying to please Germany and the EU also sacrifice the strategic to the tactical. Achieving and implementing an integrated approach to managing the northern crossings - including joint presence at the Gates with EULEX - would be a good way to end the crisis created last July. But removing barricades by force and handing over the local communities to EULEX and KFOR efforts to corral them into using the "official" crossings - before such an agreement - is not the way to win support for it.
This could all get even worse if EULEX and Belgrade conspire to do something about the northern court. Settling on a status neutral but practical approach to the court in the north is a difficult and complicated matter. Trying to force it would be dangerous and counter-productive.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the EU is too impatient to do real peacemaking in Kosovo and has instead opted for browbeating Serbia into joining it in using hammers to open windows. It would be a natural reaction for anyone in the house at the time to increase their barricades on the doors.
It may be that Berlin specifically is leading the charge on Belgrade - now sending its foreign minister - because splits within the EU may make it hard to deny Serbia candidacy altogether. A deal now to include regional representation, clearing barricades and implementing integrated border management could be enough to justify Germany giving way. Serbia might then get candidacy but, perhaps, no date. The EU would maintain leverage with Belgrade while giving Tadic something to show for the upcoming elections.
Belgrade is trying to hold up its end for this kind of deal. Last night, Serbian police went to the barricade blocking the road to the "official" crossing at Jarinje and dismantled it. This on the eve of a visit by the head of EULEX.
In Belgrade, General de Marnhac complained that EULEX still does not have full freedom of movement in north Kosovo. He explained that EULEX must resume "its regular and critical rule of law operations in the north without any further delay" adding that "only the criminal structures benefit from the current situation." In an interview, de Marnhac said EULEX is at the official crossings "ready to operate the gates" and suggested that in the current bad weather "the best way to move is to go through the 'normal' roads." According to de Marnhac, the objective is "to return to a normal functioning of the gates, first of all for the sake of the people." KFOR recently cleared its side of the Janrinje gate so now with Belgrade's help, EULEX "readiness," and the Kosovo Albanian personnel being flown to the crossing every day, they can all claim a Potemkin border between Kosovo and Serbia.
The EU's use of the candidacy issue to force Belgrade to give way on these Kosovo issues is using something "big" to gain some quite "small" objectives. Either Serbia in the EU makes geo-political sense or it does not. If the EU membership agrees it does, chasing down President Tadic on barricades and footnotes is simply absurd. It's a way to seek some quick, "flashy" progress that changes little. And it poisons the atmosphere for real substantial progress in resolving the core remaining Kosovo status issues by raising nationalist feelings on all sides.
Belgrade's gyrations in trying to please Germany and the EU also sacrifice the strategic to the tactical. Achieving and implementing an integrated approach to managing the northern crossings - including joint presence at the Gates with EULEX - would be a good way to end the crisis created last July. But removing barricades by force and handing over the local communities to EULEX and KFOR efforts to corral them into using the "official" crossings - before such an agreement - is not the way to win support for it.
This could all get even worse if EULEX and Belgrade conspire to do something about the northern court. Settling on a status neutral but practical approach to the court in the north is a difficult and complicated matter. Trying to force it would be dangerous and counter-productive.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the EU is too impatient to do real peacemaking in Kosovo and has instead opted for browbeating Serbia into joining it in using hammers to open windows. It would be a natural reaction for anyone in the house at the time to increase their barricades on the doors.
