Previously, I suggested that the recent twin visits by top officials of the State Department's European Bureau might be part of some effort to clear the way for a new approach to resolving the north Kosovo issue. This may have become more pressing for the Quint given the clear failure to bring the northern Kosovo Serbs under Pristina through intimidation and the use of force.
With the US diplomats having just left Belgrade, the new Serbian president, Tomislav Nikolic, seems to have launched something of a trial balloon on Kosovo. It may mean nothing or could be part of a (perhaps as yet un-choreographed) dance toward that new approach. Nikolic - following former President Tadic' handshake last week with Kosovo's prime minister - has publicly stated that he does not expect to ever be president of Kosovo. He added that the government in Pristina will likewise never be the government of north Kosovo. He called on Serbia's political parties to reach a consensus on what Kosovo is and how it should be governed. Nikolic reaffirmed Serbia's refusal to accept Kosovo independence but added that talks are necessary to bring the two sides closer together.
Nikolic' statement suggested to some a readiness to accept Kosovo's partition as part of an ultimate settlement. His office denied this, saying his words were a call for unity in Serbia's position on Kosovo and a warning that the situation requires a response. Meanwhile, a holdover from the previous government - State Secretary Oliver Ivanovic - joined the call for a consensus position on Kosovo and agreed that negotiations must begin soon after Serbia's new government is formed. He said that the northern Kosovo Serbs - of which he is one - must be included in such talks. The northerners themselves have been protesting Pristina's provocative moves in the north and calling for abrogation of previous agreements between Pristina and Belgrade that they view as harmful to them.
Nikolic seems determined to avoid any hint of wanting to take Serbia off its path to the EU. He has said that Serbia's economy and Kosovo are the two most important issues facing the country. He also has suggested that he understands the two issues are connected as reaching some sort of accommodation with Pristina is key to making swifter progress on the EU. His comments might suggest readiness to consider redrawing the border between Kosovo and Serbia - at the Ibar presumably - but also would be consistent with an arrangement leaving the north as functionally part of Serbia but territorially part of Kosovo, perhaps through implementation of some Ahtisaari-Plus approach.
The Americans went to Pristina after Belgrade. Pristina may make its own new offer in the coming days or weeks. The UN Secretary General may visit Belgrade later this month. Are the stars aligning for a possible new round of serious talks on Kosovo, this time focusing on the north? Been there before and then the Pristina side launches some provocation that heightens tensions and radicalizes reactions. The US would have to hold Pristina on a tight leash for any useful dialogue to begin. And talks will have to include the northern Kosovo Serbs in some fashion. The Pristina side also will have to take into account that the northerners will not accept any involvement in their communities by the Kosovo government or any effort to disconnect them from Serbia. A deal could be built on such a foundation. But this is still just speculation.
With the US diplomats having just left Belgrade, the new Serbian president, Tomislav Nikolic, seems to have launched something of a trial balloon on Kosovo. It may mean nothing or could be part of a (perhaps as yet un-choreographed) dance toward that new approach. Nikolic - following former President Tadic' handshake last week with Kosovo's prime minister - has publicly stated that he does not expect to ever be president of Kosovo. He added that the government in Pristina will likewise never be the government of north Kosovo. He called on Serbia's political parties to reach a consensus on what Kosovo is and how it should be governed. Nikolic reaffirmed Serbia's refusal to accept Kosovo independence but added that talks are necessary to bring the two sides closer together.
Nikolic' statement suggested to some a readiness to accept Kosovo's partition as part of an ultimate settlement. His office denied this, saying his words were a call for unity in Serbia's position on Kosovo and a warning that the situation requires a response. Meanwhile, a holdover from the previous government - State Secretary Oliver Ivanovic - joined the call for a consensus position on Kosovo and agreed that negotiations must begin soon after Serbia's new government is formed. He said that the northern Kosovo Serbs - of which he is one - must be included in such talks. The northerners themselves have been protesting Pristina's provocative moves in the north and calling for abrogation of previous agreements between Pristina and Belgrade that they view as harmful to them.
Nikolic seems determined to avoid any hint of wanting to take Serbia off its path to the EU. He has said that Serbia's economy and Kosovo are the two most important issues facing the country. He also has suggested that he understands the two issues are connected as reaching some sort of accommodation with Pristina is key to making swifter progress on the EU. His comments might suggest readiness to consider redrawing the border between Kosovo and Serbia - at the Ibar presumably - but also would be consistent with an arrangement leaving the north as functionally part of Serbia but territorially part of Kosovo, perhaps through implementation of some Ahtisaari-Plus approach.
The Americans went to Pristina after Belgrade. Pristina may make its own new offer in the coming days or weeks. The UN Secretary General may visit Belgrade later this month. Are the stars aligning for a possible new round of serious talks on Kosovo, this time focusing on the north? Been there before and then the Pristina side launches some provocation that heightens tensions and radicalizes reactions. The US would have to hold Pristina on a tight leash for any useful dialogue to begin. And talks will have to include the northern Kosovo Serbs in some fashion. The Pristina side also will have to take into account that the northerners will not accept any involvement in their communities by the Kosovo government or any effort to disconnect them from Serbia. A deal could be built on such a foundation. But this is still just speculation.
